Unemployment Rate:
http://www.bls.gov/cps/cps_over.htm#overview
The Current Population Survey (CPS), or "Household Survey", is a survey based on a sample of 60,000 households. Among other things, the data is used to calculate the official unemployment rate and 5 other “labor underutilization” percentages noted as U1 through U6:
BLS Name |
Definitonal Description |
Range of values 1994 to 2004 |
Typical Ratio to U3 |
U1 |
U2 - those unemployed 15 weeks or longer. |
1% to 2.1% |
.25 |
U2 |
U3 – those who lost their job or completed temporary work. [less than 15 weeks ago] |
1.9% to 3.5% |
.37 |
U3 |
Percentage of civilian labor force who are not actively engaged in the production of goods and services, but are actively seeking it. This is the Official unemployment rate and it is per the ILO [International Labour Organization?] definition. |
4% to 6.5% |
1.0 |
U4 |
U3 + "discouraged workers" (marginally attached workers who have given a job-market related reason for not currently looking for a job) |
4% to 6.6% |
1.1 |
U5 |
U4 + other "marginally attached workers" (those who are neither working nor looking for work but indicate that they want and are available for a job and have looked for work sometime in the recent past) |
4.7% to 8% |
1.15 |
U6 |
U5 + Part time workers who want to work full time, but can not due to economic reasons |
7% to 12% |
1.7 |
Notes: "Marginally attached workers" are added to the civilian labor force for unemployment rate calculation for U4, U5, and U6. Those institutionalized (Prison population and other), those under age 16, the disabled, and possibly others are excluded.
Employment (Jobs Index):
http://www.bls.gov/ces/home.htm
The Current Employment Statistics survey (CES), or "Payroll Survey" or “Non-Farm Payroll” (NFP), is the official measure of U.S. employment. It is a survey based on a sample of 160,000 businesses and government agencies that represent 400,000 individual employers.[8] This survey measures only nonagricultural, nonsupervisory employment; thus, it does not calculate an unemployment rate, and it differs from the ILO unemployment rate definition.
The CES is the basis for the CES Net Birth/Death Model (BDM) which supports the Birth/Death Adjstment, in effect since 2003.
Explained simply, this adjustment tries to take into account the number of jobs quietly created by companies being born, or jobs lost because companies go out of business. The government assumes that newborn or dying companies are missed by its surveys.
The BDM contribution to the NFP measure is large, compared to the total monthly change -- say 40% to 90% !!!
“the Bureau of Labor Statistics refuses to allow academics and commercial economists access to the models they use for the birth/death additions ” The Financial Activities numbers for Oct, Nov, and Dec 2006 were 25, 8, and 17. They were the same for 2007!!